At an American Community Media Zoom briefing on Venezuela, moderator Pilar Marrero said the event was originally planned to examine the escalation of U.S. military pressure, but shifted after “the facts on the ground changed dramatically” following “direct US military action and the removal of Venezuela's ruler, Nicolas Maduro.” Marrero framed the situation as “a new and deeply uncertain phase,” and introduced panelists who assessed public reaction inside Venezuela, the legality of the operation under international law, and what Washington appears to want next.
Alejandro Velasco, a historian at New York University and former executive editor of NACLA, said Venezuelans he has spoken with describe a mix of “anxiety,” “confusion,” and a tentative sense of possibility as events move quickly. He pointed to signs that were “unthinkable just a few… weeks and months ago,” including early reports of political prisoners being released and conciliatory messages from the post Maduro authorities. Velasco argued the U.S. posture appears driven less by democratic aims than by strategic interests, telling the briefing: “It is jarring to me as an historian… to hear the quiet part stated so loudly.” He later said the most important step Washington could take, if it claims to support democratic recovery, is rhetorical and practical restraint: “The most important thing that the… U.S. Government should do… is to stop speaking as though it owns Venezuela.”
Mariano de Alba, a Venezuelan lawyer specializing in geopolitics and international law, said the operation was difficult to justify legally under the post 1945 system anchored by the UN Charter. “I think it's quite clear that there's no legal way to justify this operation,” he said, adding that Maduro’s lack of democratic legitimacy does not change the core international law issue because he remained the de facto authority. De Alba also argued it was unlikely the current U.S. administration would transfer Maduro to the International Criminal Court even if the ICC issues a warrant, citing the strained U.S.-ICC relationship and U.S. sanctions on some ICC officials. He predicted Maduro is more likely to face proceedings in U.S. courts and said broader legal consequences for U.S. officials are “highly unlikely.”
Roxana Vigil, an international affairs and national security expert focused on U.S. policy toward Latin America, said the administration’s stated objectives remain unclear beyond oil and enforcement measures. She noted Venezuela produces roughly 900,000 barrels per day, a small share of global supply, and argued that rebuilding Venezuela’s oil sector would require rule of law and institutional changes that typically depend on a legitimate government, plus long-term investment and durable sanctions waivers. She raised concerns about the reported plan for the U.S. to sell Venezuelan oil and about where proceeds would be held and overseen, warning that without strong controls and representation, the Venezuelan public is not positioned to benefit. “Right now, the Venezuelan people are not being represented at this proverbial table,” she said, calling for an independent third party to manage any oil-derived funds to reduce corruption risk.
In the Q and A, a reporter asked whether Maduro could be held accountable for alleged human rights violations in international court. De Alba said the ICC has been formally investigating potential crimes since late 2021 but has not publicly indicted Maduro, and he described any near-term transfer to the ICC as unlikely. Another question challenged the idea that the operation could significantly choke China’s oil supply. Vigil responded that the “China argument doesn't add up,” noting China’s refining capacity for Venezuela’s heavy crude and its role as a major creditor that will seek repayment in any medium-term restructuring.
The panelists broadly agreed that the immediate aftermath leaves Venezuela’s transition uncertain, with the same state apparatus still in place and U.S. intentions debated. The briefing closed with Marrero urging reporters to keep investigating and “keep Venezuelans in mind.”
